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Statistics and Biased Sampling

Back in 1948, the Chicago Tribune published a newspaper declaring “Dewey Defeats Truman.” There was only one problem: Truman won. Here is an AI summary of the event.

The 1948 U.S. presidential election is a landmark event in polling history, famously illustrated by the erroneous headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” published by the Chicago Daily Tribune. This headline was based on pre-election polls, including those by Gallup, which predicted a decisive victory for Republican candidate Thomas E. Dewey over incumbent President Harry S. Truman. These polls used quota sampling, a method that aimed to ensure the sample reflected the population’s demographics by targeting specific groups in predetermined proportions. However, this method was flawed because it relied on telephone interviews, and in 1948, wealthier Dewey supporters were significantly more likely to have telephones than less affluent Truman supporters, leading to a biased sample. Despite the polls favoring Dewey, Truman won the election with 303 electoral votes to Dewey’s 189, and a 4.4-percentage point margin in the popular vote. The discrepancy highlighted the critical importance of using probability sampling, where individuals are randomly selected, to achieve an accurate representation of the population.

When we talk about Defensive Gun Uses (DGUs), the findings usually depend on the sample we look at. Here is the AI generated summary of the sample technique of the National Firearm Survey:

The 2021 National Firearms Survey, conducted between February 17 and March 23, 2021, used an online survey administered to a representative sample of approximately 54,000 U.S. residents aged 18 and over, identifying 16,708 gun owners for in-depth questioning about firearm ownership and use. This survey, carried out by the professional firm Centiment, utilized a large sample size described as the largest of any gun survey study to date, surpassing prior well-respected surveys in scale. The sampling methodology was approved by the Georgetown University Institutional Review Board.

If you are a gun owner and you want to look at what the breakdown would be of a typical DGU (assuming the future will resemble the past), the National Firearm Survey would be the best place to go.

However, what if the National Firearms Survey didn’t ask the questions you wanted answered? For example, let’s assume you wanted details about DGUs where the victim fired their weapon at the offender? Well, you would want to conduct another National Firearm Survey, making any modifications to improve the sample selections, and then ask the questions you want answers to. Unfortunately, to rerun a survey of that magnitude would be cost-prohibitive.

One approach taken by Claude Werner was to analyze the NRA’s Armed Citizen column and compile statistics. I don’t know what the process is for the NRA to select a situation to publish in an Armed Citizen column, but I suspect it is nothing like the National Firearms Survey. Hence, there will be some unknown sampling bias that impacts the statistics.

Why am I talking about this situation? Well, in the GUNS magazine September 2025 issue, I ran across two different quotes in two different articles. This one is by Lew Gosnell:

[…] that a quality revolver loaded with effective ammunition is entirely adequate for 99% of typical self-defense requirements.

Then, in a different article by Massad Ayoob we have this:

Speaking of Tom Givens, one of the very best in the armed self-defense teaching business, he also teaches with the same type of gun he carries – a full-size 9mm service pistol backed up with two spare mags because that’s what his intensive analysis of civilian gunfights suggests is the best setup.

What a disparity! Yet, both of these authors are highly experienced with law enforcement, violent crime, and accurate shooting. This made me curious about Tom Given’s analysis. Here is the AI summary.

Tom Givens, a firearms instructor with over 40 years of experience, has conducted a detailed analysis of civilian gunfights based on data from his students. His research, derived from over 60 documented defensive encounters involving his students, reveals consistent patterns in distance, duration, and the number of shots fired. Most of these incidents occurred at a distance of three to seven yards, which is roughly the length of a car, with the majority happening between three and five yards. This distance range is critical for training, as it represents the most likely scenario for a civilian self-defense encounter.

The analysis shows that these gunfights are typically very brief, lasting approximately three seconds, and involve the firing of about three to four shots. The data indicates that the vast majority of incidents are financially motivated, such as armed robberies, carjackings, or home invasions, and occur in public places like convenience stores, parking lots, and shopping malls, rather than at home. Givens emphasizes that the success of a defensive encounter hinges on the ability to draw the firearm quickly and deliver accurate, well-placed shots from concealment. His students, who were armed, won all 63 to 68 documented encounters, with no losses, and most sustained only minor injuries or none at all.

Givens’ analysis also highlights the importance of mindset and preparation. He stresses that the use of deadly force is justified only to terminate an immediate deadly threat to oneself or someone for whom one is responsible. He advocates for training that prioritizes fast, reliable presentation of the handgun from concealment, two-handed shooting for stability and accuracy, and the ability to keep the gun running through reloading and malfunction clearance. The data underscores the necessity of carrying a firearm consistently, as the three students who died in robberies were unarmed at the time. This real-world data, drawn from his students’ experiences in Memphis, a high-violence city, forms the foundation of his training philosophy, which differs significantly from military or law enforcement paradigms.

Givens has excellent data. The problem comes when people want to extrapolate it and say this is what a DGU will be. To see what the problem is, I’ll give a couple of examples:

  1. You survey people who have a graduate degree in piano performance, asking them what their favorite songs are. After tabulating the results, you indicate that America likes these songs the best.
  2. You survey people who have $200,000+ sports cars, asking them what they think about State Troopers. After tabulating the results, you indicate that America has a problem with State Troopers.

As you can see, if you select from students of your self-defense classes who live in Memphis, you are not selecting a random sample of individuals. You may be selecting people who are more likely to have dangerous jobs, work in dangerous environments, live in dangerous areas, or work at dangerous locations. Also, they may adopt your specific training ideas and use them in the field. This means the data you get can be self-reinforcing.

I continue to believe the National Firearm Survey to have our best data about DGUs. However, even the National Firearm Survey can’t tell us everything. Things like:

  1. A DGU where the victim was killed
  2. A DGU where the victim was charged with a crime and imprisoned
  3. A DGU where the victim was killed by responding police officers believing he was a threat.

These are important to know, as well as other harms of concealed carry.

All in all, I endorse the position of Lew Gosnell about the advantages of a double-action revolver for an ordinary civilian.

Are Concealed Carry Firearms With Lights Compatible With Civilian Self-Defense?

An article by James Tarr in the Guns & Ammo September 2025 issue called “Light Discipline” has this to say:

As readers of this column know, I’m not a fan of lights mounted on concealed-carry pieces of citizens because it’s almost impossible to employ them without violating one of the four basic gun safety rules. With the light attached to a pistol’s accessory rail, you’re pointing a loaded gun wherever you point the light. They’re mostly a fad, I believe. […]

I wish I could agree with James Tarr that these lights are a fad, but I don’t believe they are. Much concealed carry training is derived from law enforcement training, and most people believe violent crime happens mostly at night.

The key question, though, is how much of this training applies to civilians in self-defense situations. A typical response is that you may need a weapon light to sweep your house for an intruder. However, simply thinking about this for a moment reveals how disadvantaged you are. An intruder hiding with a willingness to harm you is going to see you coming from a mile away and will likely get off the first shot.

I cover home defense a lot in my book. One way to avoid this situation is to use emergency lights. Emergency lights come on when power is removed from them. This can be done via a switch or a power outage. Having a light switch that can flood the inside of your home with light is going to be a powerful ally against any nighttime home intruder. It is your house, and you can prepare it so that any intruder will be at a crippling disadvantage against you. Under no circumstances should an intruder have the upper hand against you just because they happen to be there.

The following typical response is the dark robbery scenario. You feel your life is in danger, but cannot see the offender. You draw your weapon, and the light helps you aim accurately. I believe this is a valid scenario, but I would probably go with instant-on Viridian technology as the appropriate way to activate the light (or laser and light). However, these situations are also challenging since the light can blind you if it reflects off a wall, a car, or some other reflective material. Some instructors recommend a strobe light to disorient your attacker – I’m not sure if that would help reduce the light blinding you as well.

What would happen if the person were not an attacker? For example, let’s assume you have your car parked in a parking garage. You live in a cooler climate, and as soon as you left your vehicle, a homeless guy crawled underneath it and went to sleep. When you get back to your car, it is dark, and right before you go to open the car door, the homeless guy wakes up and panics. You draw your weapon and see that it is a homeless guy. The homeless guy sees your weapon and runs away.

What happened? Well, you just committed an aggravated assault. You and your firearm put the homeless guy in fear for his life. If the homeless guy flags down a police officer, you could be in trouble. If your state has mandatory sentencing for gun crimes, you’ll probably beg for a plea deal if you are charged rather than run the risk of a jury trial. In any case, lawyers could be involved, and it may not go the way you want.

Obviously, a separate flashlight solves this problem. However, I have never gotten the impression that concealed carriers like a separate flashlight. The reason is that there is an incredible emphasis on draw speed and on two-handed control. Training to use a flashlight and a handgun together is tough and requires a tremendous amount of practice.

All in all, I’m very much in agreement with James Tarr about weapon lights.

Violent Crime Is All About Youth

A report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics on victim/offender age groups for 2023 was just released. You can get it here. Keep in mind that the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) includes simple assault as a violent crime (but excludes murder since it is a survey of crime victims), but the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program includes murder and does not include simple assault.

Key Findings

In 2023:

  • The percentage of violent incidents involving victims ages 12 to 17 and the percentage of incidents involving offenders ages 12 to 17 were not significantly different from their shares of the U.S. population (figure 1).
  • Persons ages 18 to 29 accounted for about one-third (33%) of victims in violent incidents, which was almost double their share of the population (18%). This age group’s share of offenders in violent incidents (23%) was also larger than its population share.
  • Persons age 30 or older were victims in 58% of violent incidents, which was lower than their share of the population (73%). Similarly, this age group accounted for 62% of offenders in violent incidents, also lower than its share of the population.”

Creating An Atmosphere

Guns & Ammo had a special issue called “Carry” recently. It is on display until October. I picked it up for the article called “A Day In The Life Of Open Carry” by Frank Melloni. Although the article describes him wearing a Taurus Judge, the photos all show him with a semi-auto pistol with a red dot.

Given how often concealed carry proponents talk about draw speed, I’m surprised more do not open carry. Open carry draw speed is far superior, especially when you factor in activities such as sitting down, carrying bags, dining at restaurants with friends in a cramped space, or similar tasks.

What I enjoyed about the article was how Melloni described the tense atmosphere he created. All of the people he interacted with (except his neighbor) were ordinary civilians, and he put them on edge. This is not the atmosphere you want to create as a law-abiding citizen.

Is there a way to create a different atmosphere and open carry? I’m not sure. If I were so inclined, I might try dressing more formally and wearing a prominent body camera. This may lead people to think that you are a type of law enforcement official. As long as you are not pretending to be a law enforcement officer (which is a felony), you may be able to create a less tense atmosphere.

All in all, the article is a good read. Check it out!

Criminals, Police, and Ordinary Civilians

In my book, I talk about how often ordinary civilians are in situations that sadly turn out to be violent crime incidents. Domestic violence, neighbor disputes, family troubles, date rape by a friend, and many other “people you know” situations that escalate into violence are more prevalent than people think. However, there is a criminal element that targets ordinary civilians, and we must ensure that we prepare for this. How do ordinary civilians prepare for violent crime? Some analysts (in many cases, former law enforcement officers) spend a lot of time examining police and criminal interactions, believing that it sheds light on criminal and ordinary civilian interactions. Is this a valid assumption?

I would say NO.

Criminals (there are exceptions) do not want to see or interact with the police. The police are apex predators of criminals, and criminals are a lower predator than the police, to put it simply. Criminals and ordinary civilians are different. Criminals are the predators, and ordinary civilians are the prey. Criminals choose their prey. Furthermore, there are many consequences for the criminal if they choose to use violence against a law enforcement officer — consequences like a whole army of other law enforcement officers chasing you and long prison time if you are caught. Victimizing ordinary civilians will not lead to further consequences if the criminal does everything right to get the job done and conceals their identity. In addition, after successfully victimizing an ordinary civilian, the criminal need not worry about large numbers of people hunting him. I suspect that many criminals who kill law enforcement officers likely don’t want to go back to prison (Law Enforcement Officers Killed or Assaulted (LEOKA) reports show that these offenders have often been previously arrested for violent crime).

Law Enforcement tactical teams also influence analysts, who, in some cases, are former members of these teams. Smaller-caliber, high-capacity magazines, carbines, and handguns, carried with a round in the chamber, have influenced numerous articles and books tailored to ordinary civilians. The use of body cams by law enforcement officers also shows the need for high-capacity firearms always at the ready. These make their way into videos on various social media platforms, influencing the choices of ordinary civilians for self-defense.

In contrast, our best statistics from William English’s National Firearm Survey and Claude Werner’s Armed Citizen analysis indicate that these capabilities are not typically required in most civilian defensive gun uses. Ordinary civilians would greatly benefit from simpler firearms, which reduce training requirements and increase safety. For example, I’ve detailed the advantages of training with a double-action revolver compared to a semi-automatic pistol, both in terms of simplicity and quickness in recovery from misfires, as well as significantly reduced ammunition costs. You can train with a double-action using snap caps without employing any other techniques specific to training. In short, you train dry firing just as you would normally shoot the firearm.

While videos can always influence people, recognizing videos without supporting statistics is akin to watching videos of someone getting struck by lightning, to the point where you are afraid to go outside if there is a cloud in the sky. The probability of getting struck by lightning hasn’t changed; only your perception of it has.

RECOILWEB.COM – CONCEALMENT Issue 45

I tend to like CONCEALMENT magazines as they have more interesting articles. This issue was no exception. There are two articles I liked, and one that I didn’t think was as informative as it could have been.

  1. On Her Own. Why You Shouldn’t Carry a Gun by Annette Evans. This is a good article for everyone to discuss. One of the reasons is dealing with the aftermath of potentially killing someone. Not only the offender, but potentially an innocent bystander. I feel people don’t consider the negative impact of violence on their lives. My book covers some research on psychological problems due to violence. They are substantial. Remember, some of the toughest men in the world have PTSD.

I wish Evans had discussed items like the JPX6, a pepper spray pistol that I cover in my book. Because it isn’t classified as a firearm, you can avoid legal troubles and still carry it if you wish. Even if you carry a firearm concealed, having a JPX6 around is a good idea. The reason is that you could find yourself watching a violent situation unfold between a man and a woman, or between kids and adults, and so forth. For example, you see a large man beating up his wife in the parking lot. The wife looks like she will suffer grave injuries without some intervention. However, the man is twice your size. If you threaten the guy with your gun, you might have to shoot him. Even if you shoot a wife-beater, the wife may come after you. This is why law enforcement officers hate domestic violence calls.

  1. Taken By Force by Dave Merrill. Unfortunately, I didn’t find this article too interesting, which is surprising since I’ve liked what I’ve read from Merrill before. I’m not sure if the target audience is quite right. Based on the discussion, it seemed like if you fit the profile of someone who would be kidnapped, you would have a security team. Perhaps focusing more on Mexico, Latin America, and vacation spots like Jamaica would have been better. These types of kidnap-for-money schemes could impact many ordinary civilians who are just vacationing.

For America, I suspect the violent crime statistics around kidnapping would likely point to child custody battles. As far as women go, in America, I would also suspect that date rape drugs and voluntary intoxication would be something women would need to worry about much more than kidnapping. In short, protecting yourself from these more common threats would also protect you from kidnapping.

  1. Strapping Up – The Thing About Slings for Home Defense by Tamara Keel. This is an excellent article about the use of slings for home defense. I’m firmly in the anti-sling camp myself. However, I grant that my home defense is tailored to not using a sling.

I believe that law enforcement tactical teams have a significant influence on the proponents of using a sling for home defense. One such case is having to go make sure your loved ones are safe, as they are presumably located in another room in the house. Here is where I think people miss:

You are in control of your house. You can set it up in any way based on the threats you perceive. If you think a home invasion is more likely than an emergency, then set up your house that way! You are not constrained! You are not a law enforcement officer raiding a house you have no idea what the layout is. You can make things very difficult for an intruder and very safe for your family by choosing a living arrangement that reflects the level of threat you think you are facing. 

As I point out in my book, modern floor plans are not designed to protect your loved ones. The master bedroom is either in the furthest corner of the house, and the kids' bedrooms are in the other corner, or your master bedroom is downstairs, and everything else is upstairs. Now, you are going to sling up your AR-15 and protect your family? Really? It turns out that 75% of the interior area of your house is between where you sleep and where your kids sleep. Now, you are going to go hunting an intruder with an AR-15 that is likely between you and your kids? You have two 1/2" pieces of drywall to keep them safe? And you are spending time wondering if you should sling your carbine or not? Have you thought this through? 

Furthermore, there is talk about going outside your house to investigate a neighbor's motion light or other similar issues. As I point out in my book, this is a bad idea for many reasons. If your neighbor called the cops, now you are out in your PJs (NOTE: what you sleep in is another discussion!) with an AR-15 and a sling, and law enforcement pulls up. Who is the suspicious person now? Keep in mind that aggravated assault and felony vandalism are common when there are multiple offenses in a single incident for NIBRS. Granted, you may need to protect your animals, but that is a whole different discussion from keeping your family safe. Don't mix the two!

Off-Body Carry

The title of my book is “Beyond Weapons,” indicating my book isn’t about how to use weapons. The subtitle of my book is “A Guide to Holistic Self-Defense.” What this subtitle means is “How to put yourself in a position to be successful.” You want to be in a position to be successful in dealing with ordinary civilians, law enforcement, and criminals. Ideally, you don’t want criminals even to be aware that you exist, and in all honesty, the same can be said about law enforcement officers – you should be off their radar. When it comes to your interactions with ordinary civilians, the goal is to have rich and rewarding experiences, rather than problematic encounters that can escalate into criminal behavior (e.g., domestic violence, road rage, neighbor disputes, and so on). The title and subtitle of my book represent an exploration of how to position yourself to effectively avoid violence.

In this post, I aim to discuss off-body carry and demonstrate how people often overlook the importance of interacting with law enforcement officers. Often, off-body carry situations are used in hot and humid weather. The attire someone wears in this weather doesn’t lend well to on-body carry of a firearm. Given these conditions, many people choose an off-body way to conceal their firearm, which in many cases is a fanny pack.

Now is a good time to introduce one of Olsen’s Laws (my apologies for the liberties taken!). Here is an Olsen’s Law for Ordinary Civilians: You will have more interactions with law enforcement officers than you’ll be a victim of a violent crime. If you give it a moment’s thought, you’ll realize this is a true statement.

Here is the problem. Many reviews of fanny pack concealment will tell you what they store in their fanny pack. It turns out to be their gun, their ID, their phone, and so on. Now, imagine for a moment, you have, say, a boating accident. You are a bit shook up. You are not sure who is at fault. A law enforcement officer arrives and asks to see your ID. You mistakenly unzip the wrong compartment of your fanny pack because you are a bit dazed from the accident. The first thing the law enforcement officer sees is the handle of a gun. Do you know where this leads?

Imagine buying a concealed carry holster with a pocket for your wallet. Is that a good decision? Do you want to reach for your ID in the same motion as you pull a firearm? Probably not! By keeping your firearm and your ID in your fanny pack, you are effectively doing the same thing. You don’t want to be interacting with a law enforcement officer, reach for your ID, and suddenly be dead. Put yourself in a position to be successful. Consider the more common scenarios and how your gun will affect those situations. Make the appropriate trade-offs.

Recognize that self-defense is all about trade-offs. There is no one solution for all scenarios.

2023 NIBRS Report – A Self-Defense Perspective

Hello Everyone,

The Uniform Crime Reporting program has been gradually moving to a new database called NIBRS. NIBRS promises a wealth of additional detail about crime reported to law enforcement. In 2023, NIBRS submissions covered approximately 80% of the United States. I felt that this coverage was sufficient to begin to analyze the data from a self-defense perspective. I worked with a great data scientist (thank you, Erin Williams!) to develop a tool to analyze the 2023 NIBRS data. The resulting report is available below.

This report supplements the statistics in my book, Beyond Weapons. I hope you find both this report and my book helpful in keeping your loved ones safe.

I appreciate your support!

Clay Escobedo Olsen
2 June 2025

NIBRS-2023-Self-Defense-AnalysisDownload