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Complex Problems and the Myth of the Simple Cause

In the Nov/Dec 2023 issue of Tactical Life magazine, there is an article entitled “GUNS or DRUGS?” by Lee Williams. The main thrust at the end of the article is a call to conduct further research on Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors (SSRIs), a class of anti-depressants, and links to mass shootings. I certainly have no qualms about the conclusion. However, the article doesn’t do enough justice to the complexity of this problem. In fact, presenting it as a choice between guns or drugs only makes the solution seem simple. I aim to show there isn’t a simple solution.

There is a particular class of problems that have hung around for a long time: violence, drug addiction, suicide, homelessness, and the like. In many cases, people jump on a single cause as the reason for the complex problem. Let’s take a look at violence. There is a class of people who believe that if guns are banned, violence goes away. If you read my book, you can see clearly that for injurious violent crimes (injurious aggravated assault, injurious robbery, and rape), firearms are used infrequently (keep in mind that aggravated assault, robbery, and rape make up 98 percent of violent crimes). Therefore, non-firearm violence would continue even if the policy of banning guns was successful. Furthermore, the latest statistics on Defensive Gun Use (National Firearms Survey 2021) show that they happen an estimated 1.6 million times a year, meaning that 1.6 million violent victimizations were avoided because of the victim being armed with a firearm. Of note is that 82 percent of the time, the firearm is not discharged, which is why surveys are necessary because the crime is not reported to law enforcement (see my book for reasons why). In short, a successful gun ban would dramatically increase violent crime by an estimated 1.6 million incidents per year over our existing violent crime rate while having a lot less impact on existing crime since most injurious violent crime doesn’t use firearms. In short, violence is a complex problem, and if you care about injurious victimization, banning guns is a simple but far worse answer, even if it could be done without sprouting up its own violent black market trade.

Let’s get back to SSRIs and violent crime. What type of study would be needed to determine a causal link? Let’s brainstorm a bit.

  • We would want to look at patients who were diagnosed with depression and prescribed SSRIs. There are many variables here. For one, we may only want to look at psychiatrists who prescribed them rather than non-psychiatrists. Based upon looking around the Internet, the most significant percentage of people prescribed SSRIs are older men and older women, with older women being the top category. Right away, we can see a challenge in that the top two categories of people prescribed SSRIs are not typically violent crime offenders (see my book).
  • We would need at least three groups: Control Group 1: People who have been evaluated and do not need SSRIs. Their age, race, sex, and ethnicity will need to match the test group. Control Group 2: People who have been evaluated and would be prescribed an SSRI but have not been (and will not be during the study). Their age, race, sex, and ethnicity will need to match the test group. This control group may be considered unethical due to being diagnosed and not prescribed. This may be mitigated via other treatment options, such as therapy, depending on if it will compromise the results. Test Group: People who have been evaluated and are prescribed an SSRI.
  • We would evaluate the violent crimes of all three groups over different periods of time.
  • Some Complications
    • SSRIs often have an adjustment period where different medications are tried until one works best for the patient. This time period should be handled separately from the time period when a single SSRI is used.
    • Some age groups, I’m thinking the younger age groups, may stop taking their medications and start back up again. This period of time could be in the adjustment period or after an SSRI is found to work best. Going on and off medication could be problematic.
    • Mixing alcohol and other drugs with SSRIs will need to be taken into account.
    • Some depressions are genetic. A group member whose family relatives have been diagnosed with depression along with violence (e.g., suicide or violent crime) may have to be handled with care in the results.

These are just some of the things that need to be considered. Assuming a well-designed study was performed, what could statistically significant results tell us? Here are some results that are possible:

  • Violent crime victims are more numerous for Control Group 2 than for the Test Group.
  • Violent crime victims are the same for Control Group 2 and the Test Group.

These results would be difficult to act on because they are of the “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” variety. Lack of SSRIs could contribute to victimization in depressed individuals just as much as SSRI use may contribute to victimization. In short, there is a lot to unpack in such a study. I agree with the author – a quality study needs to be done. Unfortunately, I don’t think it will happen in the US for various reasons, some of which the author and I concur. Let’s look at these reasons:

BigPharma trades on the distinction between “evidence of absence” and “absence of evidence.” The two are not the same. Not doing studies and showcasing that there is no “evidence” for harm is not a substitute for quality studies whose conclusion is that there is no evidence of harm. In short, as long as such studies are avoided, BigPharma can claim that there is no “evidence” for harm. Unfortunately, most Americans look to their evening news or government websites for information. Independent auditors of studies are needed for any SSRI study.

BigPharma also promotes studies that look at selective dates or evidence to advance their position. These studies are then crushed when a meta-analysis is done, which, unfortunately, happens years later. One can look at the Cochrane review on mask studies, which shows that there is no quality mask study showing masks work. Why is that important? I suspect an extensive correlation between mask use and mRNA vaccination. Fear helps sell. Another particularly horrible problem was the distinction between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated for COVID-19, where Vaccinated meant the two original shots had been completed. Everything else was considered “Unvaccinated.” Recent research from Italy has shown that between the first and second shots, the patient is actually more vulnerable to COVID-19 (this pattern continues with the boosters). What this means is that people who had one shot and got COVID-19 were considered Unvaccinated. It is an excellent way to downplay risks with your product but a horrible way to uphold public health, especially when studies are using your definitions. Some of the considerations I mentioned above could be manipulated to hide problems with SSRIs.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institute of Health (NIH), incentives for hospitals and doctors around prescribing drugs, and BigPharma are not pursuing the good of public health. Personnel from the FDA often land BigPharam jobs. This pattern is typical of regulatory capture by private entities. It is a promise of a bribe after the work is done. This work is not in the public’s interest but in BigPharma’s interest. Also, BigPharma has incentives for doctors and hospitals to prescribe drugs. For example, the vast majority of prescriptions for anti-depressants are not written by psychiatrists. One wonders what the incentives are for a primary care provider (non-psychiatrist) to prescribe antidepressants.

Lastly, NIH funds a lot of scientific research in the US. Scientists must be very watchful about what type of studies they request funding for. If NIH feels that these studies undermine BigPharma, scientists could find their funding dry up, and no new funding for other projects will be approved either. For example, quality studies of mRNA impacts on the body are not being done in the US but in other countries. BigPharma and the NIH have US scientists running scared when it comes to quality studies on the impact of mRNA on the human body. It shouldn’t be a stretch to consider the large market for SSRIs to be protected in similar ways.

For further elaboration of these points, see the books:

  • Empire of Pain by Patrick Radden Keefe]
  • The Great American Healthcare Scam by David Belk, MD and Paul Belk, PhD
  • Political Capitalism by Randall G. Holcombe.

Escalations and Thinking in Bets

In her book, “Thinking in Bets,” author Annie Duke remarks in the introduction, “Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.” She continues in the chapter LIFE IS POKER, NOT CHESS: “[…] our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome.” This tendency is known as resulting.

I like Duke’s book. However, to understand decisions involving escalation, we have to expand a bit. First, we may not know the endgame we are involved in regarding escalations. As Duke points out, we are dealing with incomplete information for decisions in poker. But, with escalations, we may have incomplete information about what endgame we are playing because we have incomplete information about our “opponent.” This would be equivalent to making a decision to play but not knowing what game you are playing. Varg Freeborn comments:

This recalls a hierarchy of escalation, for which I credit to Marc MacYoung: “Nice people fall to the manipulator. The manipulator crumbles under the assertive. The assertive shrinks before the aggressive. The aggressive have no plan for the assaultive. The assaultive are unprepared for the homicidal.”

Freeborn, Varg. Violence of Mind: Training and Preparation for Extreme Violence. One Life Defense LLC, Varg Freeborn. Kindle Edition.

This situation is familiar to a law enforcement officer (LEO). An LEO can pull over an ordinary civilian running late for work or an armed violent criminal on parole who is determined never to go back to prison. To stay alive, an LEO has to prepare as if the person they pull over is an armed violent criminal because sometimes they might be.

For ordinary civilians and escalations, we don’t often realize that an escalation can get deadly fast. Let’s hear some wisdom from Varg Freeborn:

Once you open that door to violence, anything from aggressive to homicidal can come out; you don’t get to choose which one and there’s no putting it back in once it comes out. Now, I understand how some of you feel. Why should we have to “cower” to bullies and arrogant, rude people? […] Walking away from a childish argument and going on with your life is not cowering. There is no real lasting effect on you, other than your hurt feelings and pride.  Think about that deeply.

Freeborn, Varg. Violence of Mind: Training and Preparation for Extreme Violence. One Life Defense LLC, Varg Freeborn. Kindle Edition.

Manipulators, assertive people, aggressive, and homicidal people will dominate nice people on their first meeting as nice people want to cooperate. Or, in the language of game theory, they are hawks (manipulators through the homicidal) infiltrating a dove (nice) population.

What is a dove, such as myself, to do? Recognize that cooperating requires some level of trust. Building quality relationships with other people has tremendous benefits; one of those is that the fruits of cooperation can be realized. Almost everyone other than family starts out as strangers, so interactions with strangers are a part of life. When a stranger doesn’t respond to cooperation, recognize you can be easily on the hawk escalation path (manipulator all the way to homicidal) and get out of the situation if at all possible. Remember that a highly cooperating dove population knows what to expect from one another and has the principles of justice for conflict resolution. This type of dove population is highly resistant to hawk infiltration.

This is why I usually frequent only a few places when I leave the house. I don’t easily get to know people. By attending only a few places, I can get to know people much better and build friendships (or, if I don’t like the people, decide to go somewhere else). Good friendship leads to good cooperation. For a dove like myself, friendship and cooperation are very helpful in derailing a potential escalation outside of the home.

Annie Duke learned from many great poker players, but her greatest asset in becoming a great poker player was learning what she needed to learn about. She learned that to succeed at poker required making quality decisions with incomplete information and separating out luck, good or bad, from that decision (note that this is easier said than done). Once she had learned what she needed to learn, she could focus on learning how to make quality decisions with incomplete information. Furthermore, if she suffered a bad beat, she could put it out of her mind and not let it influence the fact that she made a good decision even though the outcome was poor. More importantly, if she wins but, in the process, realizes that she did not make a quality decision, she will take what information she can and incorporate it into her future decision process. Winning while making bad decisions isn’t sustainable – you’ll go broke.

Sadly, in the world of self-defense, we are still trying to learn what we need to learn about.

Almost everyone in the self-defense industry assumes the question ordinary civilians want answered is, “How do I survive a violent encounter with an armed violent criminal?” This question is the wrong one; we must learn to ask the right one. For ordinary civilians, the proper question is similar to their mission. I credit Varg Freeborn for the mission concept. So, let’s replace “How do I survive a violent encounter with an armed violent criminal?” with “How do I protect my loved ones while being an important and vital part of their life as I do my best to help them be all they can be?” The latter question is far better than the former question. It is the question best suited to most ordinary civilians.

Once we have two questions to compare, we can see the underlying assumptions more clearly. For example, military training for wartime, if used by an LEO or civilian in a violent encounter, can dramatically improve your chances of surviving a violent encounter. However, it can also land the LEO or civilian in prison. Importantly, the prospect of going to prison isn’t even a concern if you only think about the first question. Considering the second question, it is obvious that prison is a horrible outcome.

Another example is that law enforcement training, while useful for civilians, has an underlying assumption: it is given to LEOs. Law enforcement has a duty to protect the public, while civilians do not. If mistakes occur, this discrepancy can cause legal problems for civilians but not for an LEO. For example, suppose an innocent civilian is accidentally shot during a shootout between an armed robber and an LEO. In that case, the injured civilian probably has no legal recourses, criminal or civil, against the LEO. However, if the shootout were between an armed robber and an armed civilian, the hurt civilian would likely have legal options to pursue. The armed civilian has to answer why they chose to shoot it out when their life was not on the line. Even if you don’t see prison, having your life savings cleaned out hurts your ability to help your loved ones.

The armed robbery situation brings to light another consideration: what violence do you want to involve yourself in? Let’s get really specific: If the mother of your children was alone in a convenience store and an armed criminal decided to rob it, would you want her to shoot it out with the criminal or just let him rob the store? When we ask the right question, we can see that we don’t want our wife to be shooting it out with anyone unless she or the kids are in mortal danger. Having your kids lose their mother to save $90 in the cash drawer isn’t a good trade-off.

Lastly, the experience of violence itself can have horrible emotional and psychological impacts on your life. Remember that some of the toughest men in the world suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). These psychological problems will impact your loved ones, and your ability to protect them will also suffer. We only want to choose violence when no other recourse is available.

Rape and The Matrix

The first part of my book is called Perceptions. What I explore in that section is an ordinary civilian’s perceptions of violent crime. It is evident through the social studies data cited that the public’s violent crime perceptions do not follow violent crime statistics. This mismatch should be disconcerting to everyone. What this means is that the matrix now controls your perceptions.

What is the matrix? Well, popular sci-fi movies aside, it means you are isolated from a specific feature of reality but are being informed about it in a way that doesn’t track reality. Sometimes, this information comes from propaganda or psychological warfare. Other times, it comes from something I call the “Engagement Bias,” where the need for likes, comments, shares, and ratings changes the structure of information, creating misunderstandings between the possible, probable, and actual.

Rape is a clear example of a violent crime that has public misconceptions. If you were to ask 100 women if strangers rape more women than their relatives and friends, I think the answer would overwhelmingly be “strangers.” Because of that perception, there is no lack of women’s self-defense training or woman-only concealed carry classes. I think that those classes are great, but are they a good match for protection against common rape circumstances? In my book, I argue not. Here are some common circumstances of rape:

  • The victim is at a place where she feels comfortable
  • The victim knows her offender
  • The victim may be involuntarily drugged or voluntarily intoxicated
  • The offender won’t use a weapon
  • The victim won’t call the police
  • The victim won’t seek medical treatment.

I suspect that news stories about a woman being raped by a friend after a night out on the town won’t generate a lot of engagement (assuming it is reported). I can see people flipping through the channels or browsing social media thinking, “She should have picked better friends,” and never engaging with the story. However, a news report of a woman pulled out of a car in a university parking lot and raped by a stranger will likely generate a lot of engagement.

The question is not whether the rape occurred but which rapes are reported. Assume stranger-rape is rare but reported often, and friend-rape is common but reported rarely, the public will have an incorrect perception of the probability of stranger-rape. Furthermore, suppose the circumstances are different between stranger-rape and friend-rape to the extent that they require different self-defense strategies. In that case, women could be preparing for the unlikely and being entirely unprepared for the more likely. For example:

  • How are your self-defense skills when you are involuntarily drugged? What about if you are voluntarily intoxicated?
  • Do you usually carry a concealed firearm when enjoying time with friends? What about when you are having a few mixed drinks at a house party?

Breaking through the matrix is the first step. Consulting the best statistics and analytics is the next step. Then, once your perceptions are a much closer match to reality, determining your best self-defense strategies is next. A woman’s best defense against common rape circumstances is a challenging problem. The reason is that rape resembles betrayal more than a stranger attack.

Residential Dry Fire Simulators: For a Small Room

I believe two primary home dry fire simulators are appropriate for the home. They are Smokeless Range 2.0 and Point Blank Simulator. However, they are usually set up in large rooms. I only had my bedroom to use, and the usable space was about 10 feet by 10 feet. I won’t evaluate Smokeless Range 2.0 or Point Blank Simulator in this blog post. To see a thorough evaluation, check out this YouTube video. As I get more time with these products, I’ll try and provide my own review of them.

To use these products, you’ll need to be able to control (i.e., eliminate) the sunlight in your room. I bought some large blackout curtains and cut them to fit my windows. Because I had inside blinds, I simply put them outside of the blinds and around the window. They have velcro attachments, which allow them to be removed if needed. They are supposed to be attached directly to the glass. However, I felt they would look ugly from outside my house, so I used my around-the-window attachment method instead. These cut-to-fit blackout curtains are around $25 on Amazon.

The next thing to determine is whether you’ll be permanently mounting the projector and short-throw camera or if it will be a temporary mount. Mine was a temporary mount because I had to mount the projector and camera on my bed. I picked up a long storage shelf from Home Depot, which I could put on my bed, level it, and then put the projector, camera, and computer on it. This was about $15.

For a small room, you’ll need a short-throw projector and at least an 8′ diagonal screen (e.g., 100 inches). A short-throw projector means the projector can be set closer to the screen. Smokeless Range 2.0 has a short-throw camera that is 0.5:1. This specification means if your screen is about 8 feet diagonal, the projector only needs to be about 4 feet away. The camera from Smokeless range simply sits on top of the projector. I ordered a refurbished Optoma GT1080HDRX 1080P Full HD 3800 Lumens Short Throw Gaming Projector. This project was around $750.

For the screen, I chose a retractable model. I would temporarily mount the screen and then check how your projector will display on it. You can then move the screen up or down for the best picture. I chose the Super Deal 100″ 16:9 HD projection screen for $57 on Amazon.

You’ll also need a computer. I chose an Alliwava Mini PC AMD Ryzen 9 6900HX Radeon 680M Graphics, 32GB RAM, 512GB SSD. This PC is about $700.

Smokeless Range 2.0 + Short Throw Camera is $1000.

I picked up a Tauras PT1911 for around $450 and put a Cool Fire Trainer in it with an infrared laser and extra CO2 capacity for about $600. This setup allows for recoil-enabled training.

This brings the total cost to:
$600 + $450 + $1000 + $700 + $57 + $750 + $15 + $25 is around $3600.

I put the shelf on my bed, level it, and then put the projector, camera, and PC on it. I calibrate the camera. At this point, I’m ready to use Smokeless Range 2.0. Smokeless Range 2.0 has several different applications that can be loaded. It comes with many applications. Some are more useful than others. This framework is flexible, and Point Blank Simulator can be installed as an application to Smokeless Range 2.0. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to evaluate Point Blank Simulator due to Internet issues. I commend their support, as they helped me a great deal when I was planning this project.

Cameras

Many homeowners turn to cameras as a security measure for their homes. Cameras are indeed one part of a defense-in-depth solution to better home security. Unfortunately, many homeowners have unrealistic expectations about what cameras can and cannot do.

It makes sense to want cameras to identify people, cars, and license plates. This type of identification is easier to do in the day and much more challenging at night. Furthermore, the camera angles in residential lots can make it even more difficult. For example, mounting a camera high on your house to prevent tampering may make capturing a face or license plate difficult because the camera angle is steep. Why is the camera angle steep? Well, many residential lots are small.

There are additional challenges. A potential burglar can wear a hoodie and a pandemic mask, making identification difficult, even during the day. Also, some states only require a rear license plate, which also makes capturing a license plate harder. License plates come in different colors, have different background images, and may have an ultraviolet light protective cover. Regardless of whether they have a cover, license plates are also reflective, which can cause problems with infrared cameras at night.

Let’s look at an example property. A typical suburban home has three bedrooms, two baths, and an attached garage. The front yard usually has a decorative fence. About midway on the sides of the house, a larger fence is started with a gate between the fence and the home. This fence encloses a portion of the house’s sides and the backyard. We can further assume that the house is on a street or culdesac, and there is likely an alley or some access by the backyard.

Here are four simple attacks on our property, which are much more likely than a home invasion (assuming you are a law-abiding citizen).

  • A car drives up at night, stops in front of the house, and a passenger gets out and throws three medium-sized rocks through your bedroom, dining room, and living room windows. He jumps back into the car and takes off.
  • A front-wheel-drive car pulls up on your nice front lawn at night, throws it in reverse, peels out, and then leaves the scene. The car doesn’t have a front license plate.
  • Your neighbor’s son pretends to be sick and stays home from school. His parents leave for work, just like you and your spouse. He hops the adjacent side yard fence, cracks open the side yard gate to make it look like someone entered, takes your new mountain bike, and then leaves by the back gate. He sells it to his buddy a couple of blocks away.
  • While you are on vacation, a person in a hoodie and pandemic mask jumps the back fence and forces open your storage shed. He takes a couple of valuable tools, then starts the shed on fire and runs away.

Sadly, a typical camera system deployed by a homeowner won’t be able to identify anyone here. For instance, the homeowner might have one camera in the backyard and a video doorbell camera. There needs to be footage to help law enforcement catch these people, and these cameras aren’t going to cut it. However, you’ll probably have footage to help with an insurance claim, so there is something at least. Even a professionally installed camera system will likely only be able to solve one of these attacks (the neighbor’s son).

Because most Home Owner Associations will keep you from throwing up cameras on your front decorative fence (and so is your wife), the first two attacks must be handled differently. The most likely solution is low-mounted wireless hidden cameras, one with IR and one without. The distance is short, and they make these in various models, some with solar power, so you don’t have to worry about charging them all the time.

The attack on the storage shed is challenging to defend against, but a camera mounted inside the shed may be the best bet to get a good image of the intruder. Alternatively, high-mounted auto-tracking cameras can zoom focus on a moving subject. Depending on your backyard size, these may provide what you need.

However, keep in mind another attack. If you are asleep at night and hear a window break, you may wonder if you are dreaming. You may want to check your cameras before hitting your alarm system panic button. In essence, you’ll need a quick and wide overview of your property and the sides of your house. Given their wide view, these cameras may be less suitable for determining identity, but they are great for quickly assessing your property and home for threats.

You may be wondering why I am including these examples. The Uniform Crime Reports show that secondary crimes for aggravated assault are property damage and vandalism, at around 25%. In short, an escalation occurs from property damage/vandalism to aggravated assault. Property theft and burglary are also quite common, much more common than violent crime. In most situations, these criminals do not want to get caught, and having a comprehensive security strategy is vital to preventing these crimes from ever occurring.

Cameras are a fundamental part of that home security plan but aren’t foolproof. This plan includes dogs, perimeter motion detection, outside lighting, cameras, an alarm system, door jamb re-enforcement, security doors, high-quality deadbolt locks, and window locks. Selecting a vendor that knows this fact is critical. The best camera vendor I’ve worked with that gets it is the Security Camera Warehouse.

False Positives and Security

What is almost as bad as having no home security? Having a security system that constantly alerts on false positives! What are false positives? It is when you have a security alert, but it turns out to be nothing – like a stray dog or cat. For example, let’s say you have a fenced-in yard and an outside dog. You decide to install motion-sensing lights that turn on whenever motion is detected. There is only one problem – the lights go on whenever your dog moves around. That is a false positive since you don’t want the lights to go on because of your dog. After a few weeks of these annoying lights, you’ll either shut them off or ignore them. These two choices are wrong if you care about security. Unfortunately, that is the cost of false positives.

Other technologies have similar problems. Imagine a delivery driver leaving a package at your door. From the time the delivery guy shows up, drops off the package, and then leaves, you get 15 alerts. That would be annoying. To prevent multiple alerts, some doorbell motion-sensing cameras have a “cool down” period of a minute or so after they detect motion. For instance, a delivery guy shows up on the porch, scans the label, and rings the doorbell. Since no one is home, he drops the package off on the porch, walks away, and gets back in his vehicle. The doorbell will only send one alert on first detecting the delivery guy. The doorbell camera won’t send another alert from motion until the “cool down” period expires so they won’t send multiple motion alerts for the same incident. Basically, the last motion the doorbell detects starts a “cool down” timer. Once the timer expires, the doorbell will send a new alert if it detects motion because it believes this motion belongs to a new incident. Some savvy porch pirates know this fact. They hide, and right after the delivery guy leaves a package, they swoop in and take it. You are unaware of this event because it happened during the “cool down” period when the doorbell thinks the motion is part of the same incident, so it doesn’t send an alert.

Some technologies use Artificial Intelligence to determine whether motion is a pet or a person. You can select which one will send you an alert. However, many of these devices must connect to the Internet and send the footage to be analyzed. Depending on the server’s load, you may see several seconds or even longer delays.

As you can see, some devices try to reduce false positives. However, the best way to reduce false positives is to set up your home security with this reduction in mind. Let’s go back to our fenced-in yard and dog. Rather than install motion lights, I would likely put break beam sensors between the fence and the porch, probably around four feet high. If you read my book, you know I love Dakota Alert products. Their receivers have a relay output. If the break beam sensors trip, an alert will sound, and a relay can be triggered. That relay can turn out my outside lights and light up my house like a stadium (if it is at night). When I hear an alert, and my exterior lights come on, I know something broke the beam between my fence and my porch that was at least four feet high. It is something I should pay attention to.

Z-Wave is another technology you can put to use. Let’s continue our example, but now let’s say we also have a wrap-around porch. On the ceiling of the wrap-around porch, I may put some InfraRed (IR) motion sensors by the doors and windows. If this sensor is tripped, I can trigger large porch lights, the break beam sensor lights if they are not on, and many other things. A further example is if the time of day is between 11 pm and 4 am, I may want a siren to sound if the break beam lights and porch lights have been triggered. In short, there is a lot of capability in these systems.

Defense-in-depth applies here, too. Should a burglar get past your break beam and motion sensors on the perimeter, your alarm system will take over (you do set your alarm to STAY when you are home, right?). Door, window, and glass break sensors all come into play here. However, a significant design goal with perimeter defense is the reduction of false positives without the reduction of true positives. Please spend some time thinking about it and test, test, and test some more!

Keeping Your Identification Separate from Your Wallet

As discussed in my book, I keep my identification separate from my wallet when I am out and about. Since most Americans keep their wallet in their back pocket, reaching for a wallet can be dangerous when stopped by law enforcement, as many people carry weapons in that vicinity.

I carry my identification in an armband concealed under my shirt sleeve. If I am pulled over by law enforcement, this is easily retrieved without issue while being pulled over. If circumstances do not permit it, you can always inform the officer where your identification is and ask permission to retrieve it. Because your hands are always visible, it is a much safer location.

I’ve had good luck with this product.

It is made to wear on your wrist. With the extra large one, I can move it up close to my shoulder in the summer, allowing it to remain hidden depending on your sleeve length. In winter, you could move to the normal size and keep it on your wrist with a long-sleeve shirt.

I keep my driver’s license and concealed carry permit there. You can also laminate miniature versions of your registration and insurance cards to put in there. I also keep a spare key to my vehicle and a house key in the zippered pocket. I do not keep the house key on my key ring.

My only problem is that the zipper can start moving over time. I’ve never had the zipper unzip while wearing it. I suspect that pulling the armband on and off is what does it. However, it is an easy habit to get into to check the zipper before putting the armband on.

Form 4473 Changes

There were some not-so-recent changes to Form 4473 that I’m finally getting around to discussing. Here is an excellent summary of the changes.

My concern is questions 21.b and 21.c. Here are the actual questions from the source:

“Do you intend to purchase or acquire any firearm listed on this form and any continuation sheet(s), or ammunition, for sale or other disposition to any person described in questions 21 (c)-(m), or to a person described in question 21.n.1 who does not fall within a nonimmigrant alien exception?”

https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/atf-changes-the-4473-what-you-need-to-know/

“Do you intend to sell or otherwise dispose of any firearm listed on this form and any continuation sheet(s) or ammunition in furtherance of any felony or other offense punishable by imprisonment for a term of more than one year, a Federal crime of terrorism, or a drug trafficking offense?”

https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/atf-changes-the-4473-what-you-need-to-know/

Here is the source’s interpretation:

“Basically, line 21.b. asks whether you intend to give or sell the firearms and/or ammunition you’re buying to a prohibited person. “

https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/atf-changes-the-4473-what-you-need-to-know/

And for question 21.c:

“In other words, do you plan to use this firearm and/or ammunition to commit a crime, engage in terrorism, or sell drugs?”

https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/atf-changes-the-4473-what-you-need-to-know/

I would expand on this interpretation by adding, “Do you plan on selling or disposing the firearm to a person who intends on engaging in a crime, terrorism, or selling drugs.” In other words, you or the person you are selling/disposing are not a prohibited person YET. However, you/they are going down a criminal path where you/they will be prohibited if caught and convicted.

There is also a new note in Section C regarding age requirements, which I will cover in a bit.

I’m not a lawyer, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I don’t claim to offer any legal advice here. However, there are a couple of concerning things here.

21.b Private Sales

Many criminal organizations, such as human or drug trafficking, will hire people to transport or purchase items for illegal use. Such a person fully understands what is going on. It seems clear that these questions are to hit such people with additional criminal charges. However, a dark side to this question is also possible.

Let’s say you bought a gun from a dealer, took it home, and after a couple of weeks, you decide it isn’t for you. You run into an old friend at the store who happens to be looking for a firearm. You tell him you’ll give him a good deal on the one you have. He agrees, and you sell your firearm to him. Unfortunately, he commits a crime with that firearm a week or so later. It turns out he was not allowed to possess a firearm.

Private sales do not require a background check. However, it may be possible for the prosecution to drum up a lot of circumstantial evidence to imply that “you did know and, as such, intended.” A courtroom argument like this could be devastating.

How can you protect yourself? Well, one way is to only sell to private individuals who possess CCW permits. The next question that comes up is: “Can a verify a CCW permit online?” I asked Arizona’s CCW organization, who said there is no way to verify online. I was shocked. I felt I should be able to enter a permit # and a name and get back the permit’s status, but no such luck.

How often is a permit faked? I doubt it happens very often, but what happens if your friend faked his permit (in Arizona, the permit seems easy to fake as it must be used in conjunction with another form of identification)? You could safely say: “I confirmed he had a CCW permit and verified that name against his valid driver’s license. As such, I did not intend to sell to a prohibited person. Quite the contrary, I made extra sure I was not.” I think the prosecution would have trouble with this line of defense since you are going above and beyond the law, and there is no way to verify CCW permits online.

Alternatively, you could transfer the gun to your FFL dealer, and the FFL dealer would then sell it to your friend. That provides the most protection.

21.c Crime

A concern about this question is if you are buying a firearm because you are afraid for yourself or a loved one. Suppose an ex-boyfriend has been harassing you, and you purchase a firearm for self-defense. Unfortunately, you end up having to use the firearm to defend yourself. However, the trial starts with you being charged with aggravated assault, and you have to prove it was justified and an act of self-defense. Because a firearm was used, this is a gun crime in Arizona and has a mandatory prison sentence. Additional charges may be filed against you based on your answer to this question.

This can also happen differently: You have a CCW permit, and your 19-year-old daughter has an ex-boyfriend harassing her. She stayed with you over the weekend but must return home to a different town. You purchase a firearm for her and then give the firearm to her to defend herself. You do this step because the new age requirements will not allow her to protect herself soon enough. You feel justified because she is your daughter and has no juvenile record. Here is the text from the source:

“If transferee/buyer is under 21, a waiting period of up to 10 days may apply where notification from NICS is received within 3 business days to further investigate a possible disqualifying juvenile record. A NICS check is only valid for 30 calendar days from the date recorded in question 27.a.”

https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/atf-changes-the-4473-what-you-need-to-know/

Unfortunately, she ends up having to use the firearm to defend herself. However, the trial starts with her being charged with aggravated assault. Because a firearm was used, this is a gun crime in Arizona and has a mandatory prison sentence. Additional charges may be filed against you based on this question because you gave her the firearm. Given her age, you don’t really have a defense unless you are 100 percent sure of her juvenile record—something to keep in mind.

What If….

You are the operations manager of a firearms training facility that caters to the concealed carry market. Business is slow. Your marketing director says that to improve business, they are going to offer the following program:

  • Sign up for a 5-day concealed carry class.
  • Each week, do 30 minutes of practice in their indoor range.
  • After the first year, you must refresh your training with a 2-day refresher course.

If you do your training, practice, and refresher, the training facility will pay all your legal bills if you are ever charged with a gun crime. It won’t matter if you are in the wrong or not. Furthermore, if you are injured or killed by a violent criminal, the company will pay for your medical bills or funeral services.


You reply that this program will bankrupt the company. The marketing director says it is your job to determine how this program won’t bankrupt the company because it will be implemented to improve business. How would you proceed?
We’ll first you would vet any potential clientele. It would be best if you did extensive background checks. Various conditions would count towards a risk management index. For instance, raised by a single parent or multiple foster homes, didn’t graduate high school, parents incarcerated, siblings incarcerated, criminal records, multiple divorces, etc. If you added them all up and the risk management index was above “low,” you wouldn’t accept them in the program.


Next, you should have them take an emotional assessment test or anger management test. This test would again have an indexed risk. We would only want to accept low risk into this program.


Using the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), we know that youth and a never-married marital status are common among victims and offenders of violent crime. We should evaluate those as well. According to the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), law enforcement officers arrest more people for drug and alcohol violations than any other crime (by a wide margin). We should evaluate a candidate on their drug and alcohol consumption.


At this point, we have a properly vetted clientele. What should we teach them? First, we want to look at our statistics and have them drive our training. The statistics we will look at are the UCR, NCVS, and the National Firearms Survey (NFS) regarding Defensive Gun Use (DGU).


The UCR and NCVS show that aggravated assault is the most common violent crime. The NCVS also indicates that 67 percent of the time, aggravated assault does not result in victim injury. These two facts suggest that civilian confrontations that escalated and resulted in a weapon threat constitute these cases. These statistics drive the need for de-escalation training.


If we look at the NCVS carefully, we should conclude that injurious aggravated assault resembles domestic violence. In addition, rape is underreported. Both of these crimes are primarily violence against women. From the UCR, we saw that rape reported dramatically increased when the definition of rape changed from forced to consensual to account for things like date rape drugs. Should a woman be drugged, standard self-defense techniques may not be available. Therefore, a class for women to avoid these circumstances becomes critical.


Strangers, public places, and no weapons are common circumstances for robbery. Robbery appears to be a violent crime where an ordinary civilian will likely run into a violent criminal. The typical circumstances suggested are when a civilian travels to and from their vehicle attending an event. The same can be said for trips to and from the hotel room when it is selected due to its convenient location where destinations are within walking distance. A class is needed to instruct civilians on how to avoid robbery circumstances.


DGU statistics show that 79 percent happen at home or on the home’s property. Also, 82 percent of the time, the firearm is not discharged. These facts suggest a class on properly preparing your home’s security is critical. Also, other statistics show that the average number of rounds fired by civilians is about two, the distance is about arm’s length, and the potential victim had time to get their firearm. Choosing simple weapons over complex weapons is a must for home security, greatly simplifying training and avoiding negligent discharges.


Because most DGUs happen around the home and not in typical concealed carry situations, we need to work on carrying our weapon by the law, improving law enforcement interactions, and yet still having the ability to access a weapon. Since this would result in many changes for most concealed carriers, it has a class all to its own.


Looking at all these proposed classes, we see that these training needs are much different than what is offered today. The training is dramatically different when you get training from someone on the hook for being right AND wrong.


Many of these topics are extensively covered in my book.

Dillon Blue Press – 8/23

I was happy to see a great blue press from Dillon Precision for August 2023. There are many cool articles in it. I’ll give a quick summary. If you don’t have a subscription and you live in the US, you can sign up for it here.

Safety Tips for Travelers – Maureen P. Sangiorgio. This article references a book by Gary Quesenberry called “Spotting Danger for Travelers.” I have not read this book, but certainly am interested in getting a copy. Sangiorgio goes through several nice tips for travelers and the article is very much worth your time.

Dry-Fire Training: Good or Bad Idea by Rob Orgel. I have never seen an article about dry-fire training that explored its cons before. I definitely fall into the con camp. If you can’t practice with normal rounds, you may want to move to something like a Cool Fire Trainer, which uses mimics slide movement and recoil for semi-automatic pistols. This device also allows you to use a MantisX system to evaluate your performance.

Choosing a Suppressor: Go Long or Go Short? – Duane Thomas. Nice but short article on suppressors. I certainly belong in the short camp. I use DeadAir Sandman-K on almost everything. What I don’t think is covered well is that short suppressors do not work well on rifle calibers in an SBR configuration – a caution to some readers. Also, a lot of rounds and short suppressors can still result in damage to your ears. If you are going to be putting a lot of bullets downrange with a short suppressor, you should wear hearing protection.

How Springfield Armory’s Hellion Changed My Mind About Bullpups – Frank Jardim. I had a Hellion for a while. Loved it. What I do not like is the caliber. I have never been a fan of the 5.56mm. This particular rifle should exist in the 6mm ARC or 6.5 Grendel. With a 20″ barrel, you have the handling qualities of a AR15 16″ carbine, but an extra 4″ of barrel to squeeze all the performance out of a harder hitting cartridge. No gunsmith I knew would touch this conversion, so I had to sell mine. Waiting for the day when the 6mm ARC will be available in it. I’ll be first in line to purchase one.